UNDP Seeks Research Firm for Youth Future Forecasting Study in Rwanda

Reference: UNDP-RWA-00346 RECRUITMENT OF A CONSULTANCY ( RESEARCH / ACADEMIC INSTITUTION ) FIRM TO CONDUCT A YOUTH FORECAST EXERCISE Contract Type: Consultant firm, research institution/academics to conduct a Youth forecast exercise Duty Station Rwanda Type of contract Consultancy firm (both national and international), research institution/academics Languages Required: English Duration of Assignment 40 working days Expected starting date and timing March - April 2026 1.

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT Young people today are navigating an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving global landscape. The world is undergoing profound transformations driven by technological innovation, climate change, shifting economic paradigms, and geopolitical instability.

Multiple overlapping crises and transformation — from pandemics and conflicts to environmental degradation and economic uncertainty to emerging technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence — are redefining the future of work, education, and civic engagement and reshaping industries and societies at a pace that often outstrips the capacity of institutions to adapt.

While these changes offer unprecedented opportunities, they also pose significant challenges for youth, especially in terms of skills readiness, social inclusion, and access to dignified livelihoods. In this context, understanding the aspirations, concerns, and capacities of young people becomes not only urgent but essential for building resilient and future-ready societies.

Given those challenges, we must confront the reality that traditional pathways to youth empowerment employment are no longer sufficient. The rapid pace of technological advancement and automation demands a new approach to skilling, one that is both innovative and inclusive. Rwanda has a youthful population with a median age of 19, where 27.1% (3.6 million) are aged 16–30.

While youth represent 65% of the population, challenges persist in unemployment, skill gaps, and limited entrepreneurial opportunities. The unemployment rate for youth is 21%, higher than the national average of 15%, and 25% of youth are neither in employment, education, nor training (NEET). Rural youth face greater challenges, with higher unemployment and fewer opportunities compared to urban peers.

Many young people remain in low-productivity agriculture, with 46% engaged in agriculture-related sectors, especially in rural areas. Youth also lack technical and soft skills aligned with labor market demands in sectors like ICT, tourism, and manufacturing, exacerbating employment challenges. Gender disparities further affect youth, with young women facing higher unemployment and NEET rates than men.

Vulnerable youth, including rural youth, young women, and youth with disabilities, face unique and intersecting challenges that limit their full participation in social and economic life. Rural youth lack access to education, training, and skilling programs and are disproportionately engaged in subsistence agriculture.

Young women experience structural barriers, including limited access to finance, entrepreneurial opportunities, and persistent gender inequalities in employment sectors. Youth with disabilities, representing 2% of the youth population, encounter significant barriers in employment and education due to limited accessibility, employer biases, and lack of accommodations.

Their unemployment rate is nearly twice as high as that of young people without disabilities. Additionally, limited access to accurate and timely information on education, employment, and skilling opportunities further marginalizes vulnerable youth, leaving them unable to take advantage of existing programs or resources. These challenges demand tailored programs to bridge gaps and ensure inclusiveness.

Health and well-being issues, such as limited access to sexual and reproductive health services, risky sexual behavior, and a rise in adolescent pregnancies, compound youth challenges. Only 13.6% of health facilities offer youth-friendly services, and modern contraceptive prevalence is significantly low among adolescents (33%).

HIV prevalence among youth is also concerning, with rising new infections among adolescents.