Development of European Probabilistic High-Resolution Regional Data-Driven Earth System Modeling Capability

The aim of this ITT is to develop a production-ready open-source European probabilistic high-resolution regional data-driven modelling capability, capable of making state-of-the-art high-resolution Earth system predictions on configurable European domains. This capability, which builds on existing open-source European ML models (e.g.

AIFS, AICON, Bris); will be able to function as a complement to the physics-based regional component of the Weather-induced Extremes DT, providing key uncertainty quantification. The physics-based regional component developed by a strong partnership involving many meteorological services across Europe under the lead of Météo-France, builds on the ACCORD system and can be configured (e.g.

for regions, event types) for selected extreme events over Europe at sub-kilometre resolutions (500 to 750 m). Through the first two phases of DestinE hundreds of regional extremes DT simulations have been performed, providing a valuable source of training data for the regional data-driven modelling framework developed in this ITT.

Within this ITT, ML-ready views of a subset of these simulations will be created and used for training of the regional ML capability. Further details, including additional technical requirements are contained within the Volume II document of the ITT. Kindly note that an extension to the deadline for receipt of tenders is not anticipated and any such requests for an extension should be avoided.

ECMWF intends to award one contract for a duration of up to 24 months. The advertised budget of 8 Million EUR includes 7 million EUR for the mandatory requirement, and 1 million EUR for optional additional activity, which ECMWF may chose to award to the successful Tenderer of the mandatory activities.